Positive Outlook Driven by Tourism

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 5% growth rate for the Maldivian economy in 2025, underpinned by strong performance in the tourism sector. The projection was published following the IMF’s Article IV consultation with Maldivian authorities, concluded in mid-February.

According to the report, robust tourist arrivals and improved infrastructure capacity are expected to fuel the country's economic momentum. The government's target of 2.3 million tourist arrivals and increased air connectivity are seen as key drivers supporting this outlook.

Infrastructure Investments Taking Shape

The IMF acknowledged the role of ongoing infrastructure projects—particularly the new terminal at Velana International Airport and the Hanimaadhoo expansion—in relieving operational bottlenecks and expanding national capacity.

These projects are expected to ease supply-side constraints and help distribute economic activity beyond the central atolls, a move aligned with the government's decentralization goals.

Call for Fiscal Reform and Debt Management

While the growth forecast is positive, the IMF also stressed the need for fiscal consolidation. Maldives’ public debt remains elevated, and the IMF recommends gradual adjustments to reduce vulnerabilities. Suggested measures include improving domestic revenue mobilization, enhancing public financial management, and reducing reliance on state guarantees.

Additionally, the report highlighted the importance of building fiscal buffers to improve resilience against external shocks such as fuel price volatility or tourism downturns.

Outlook for Sustainable Development

The IMF praised ongoing efforts to promote sustainable tourism, noting its importance for long-term macroeconomic stability. It also welcomed Maldives' initiatives in data transparency and digital finance reforms.

As the Maldives continues to position itself as a premium destination, the IMF's report reflects growing international confidence in the country’s post-pandemic recovery, while urging balanced policies to support both growth and stability.